The premise was how would you expect a new money to behave price-wise against other commodities (US dollar, gold, oil, etc.)? Gold has always been considered a commodity of high value. The problems it solves for the billions of people in the second and third world shouldnt be so casually dismissed though. Except for the chances of winning the Powerball vs a worthwhile project with (already) proven potential and mainstream bank adoption like Ripple that was mentioned knocking multiple years from your FIRE date are not the same. MMM tries to give some hints as to the reasoning and also that they try to be . Either way it wont end badly right? Fiat currencies my friend is working overtime for its own demise. Still no fundamentals. Firstly, if Jihan is that rich, its probably because he doesnt spend his money. Mr. Money Mustache was a thirtysomething retiree who now writes about how we can all lead a frugal yet Badass life of leisure. WantNotToWantNot Do you really see that happening? Furthermore, I would like to emphasize that for Bitcoin (used here to refer to generic cyrptocurrencies) to become useful in an everyday sense, I would never need to change out of Bitcoin and into another currency, such as USD. Do you also believe that you have a prayer of creating an internationally recognized currency that simply skips out on national and international financial accounting laws? Its closest to an MLM for me. This fiat economy itself is only 40 year old. Glad to see some sense being written to the red necks who seem to inhabit this blog! This volatility thing that seems to be biting you folks is because Bitcoin is at 200 Billion capitalisation today. Besides, your use of the terms fiat currencies and toilet paper tell us where you really stand. When contracts cannot be broken nobody needs to oversee contracts. College, Medical, Cars, houses, Child Care, Stocks, Bitcoin, hell even dining out is all overinflated. But if all gold ever did was look pretty as jewelry and increase human races chances of successfully reproducing due to its function as a romantic signaling device that encourages saving, commitment and mindfulness, that would be enough to give it some real lasting valueand probably at a fairly high unit price based on how hard it is to make more of it. LennStar Technology is always the game changer. The web. Bro, we get ityou want to wipe your butt with germ-infested cash. Bitcoin reminds me of a story my daughter told me. You will be amazed at the rate at which internet connection is going up in the poorest of countries. Which is fine, but this trust-less nature of Bitcoin is what the early adopters valued. http://whattomine.com/ And gold has at least *some* practical value you can make attractive jewelry that doesnt tarnish, use it in electronics, dental fillings. Why would anyone do business with a medium of exchange that is accountable to nobody? The big players in China use hydroelectric power. You sound like I poop-obsessed wing nut. I dont mind people investing in Bitcoin because its not my money. drugs, prostitution, gambling, etc.) Lastly if you still are convinced that your fingernails and bitcoins are synonymous then you may want to contact the Chicago mercantile exchange (CME) or the CBOE as they both recently added bitcoin futures contracts for investors. Its not that I enjoy seeing people suffer, but who am to talk them out of it? That is the right way to think about these things. Cest la vie. Bitcoin has a deflationary nature, its only logical to pay you in $100 non-bitcoin bucks that are racing with the inflation rate of the Feds printing machine instead. Ive been experiencing the Bitcoin frenzy from the sidelines, but I recently went all in, buying up 20 physical commemorative Bitcoins on eBay. Do you practice illegal tax evasion as your primary wealth strategy? It seems to me that whats needed here on both sides is touch of humility. Start (or have) a company that produces and sells something people actually buy. January 4, 2018, 2:23 pm. This is to be expected for a revolutionary new technology. Sure, China is a renewables leader but it has limits. Maybe then it will go away. So you did. If you're like most Americans, you're a few . ), but to include gold bullion is not quite fair. I understand this is an MMM forum but i mean come on.. you have to recognize that managed risk is a part of building wealth. Not likely, bitcoin mining farms are in China because of the cheaper energy costs. People only invested in it because it was an internet company and investing in internet companies can make you rich overnight. So we need more credible people to speak out against it. You can keep saying its a bubble for eternity. Transaction fees on the DASH network are effectively 0. Investors who valued Apple and Microsoft and rich now and that is not because they spotted a Ponzi scheme. Ten years later and the price is still nowhere near that prior high, with it currently trading around $60. And whenever the price bubble pops, you also have a $2700 paperweight. Mr. Money Mustache Bubbles or Tulip Mania as you put it dont do what bitcoin has done since its inception in 2009. Its a complete rip off. In this video from Motley Fool Live, recorded on Feb. 23, Adeney joined. Prices would rise, especially if the supply of these pills was limited (just as an artificial supply limit is built right into the Bitcoin algorithm.). January 2, 2018, 6:30 pm. Ryan Thomas Bitcoins are scarce, your fingernails are not. Some people like owning pretty jewelry. Besides, how do you get BTC in the first place? Compared to bitcoin it uses only a fraction of energy. Own as much Bitcoin as matches your understanding of Bitcoin. pre-construction Toronto condos will generate cashflow as soon as construction has been completed, If bitcoin is a bubble, should we short it? Crypto currencies are a must have component of your investments and should constitute not more than 10% of your overall investments, based on your risk appetite. Also, a currency should not be artificially sparse. Just like we could end the climate castrophie in a couple years if everyone decided it was a priority and started working together to fix it, we can end milennia of war and economic oppression in just a decade or two, if we take back control of our money. Bitcoin is used for some pretty awful things, the accountant at my dads prior employer stole $500,000+ and likely hid it from the authorities. I dont know how many of you can even get to understand what this is but hopefully you understand something from the URL I share below of how mining is done, and why this is not some idiotic electricity consuming joke! It really starts to stink if it is left unattended to. January 3, 2018, 7:13 am. I believe MMM has missed the point completely in his rant above. And it gets worse: Some large, popular components of the S&P have a PE of closer to 300, meaning it would take 300 years to earn back your initial investment. And yet this is exactly whats happening with Bitcoin. Devs in their mid 20s who owe the IRS 50k and lost most everything. Speculation is very useful and I dont think anyone is going off on peoples choice to speculate, but people are very bad at properly evaluating risk. Dont count on there being a greater fool to take this sort of investment off your hands. Its like saying they are investing in lottery tickets. Good points. God speed my friend. Bitcoin could also be the TCP/IP and will probably be the world standard in 10 years! Youll note that without prejudice and emotion, he describes the actualuses of the technology, without getting intohow we should all place uninformed bets on its future value. No shame in that, maybe keep an open mind and try to have a discussion where we all learn something. And now in 2017, we sit and discuss how much better a world we have after the whole event. You are a fine example of that specimen horse. It isnt enough to live off of, but its definitely nice to have a net $500 or so in my pocket at the end of each month. Bitcoin (aka CancerPills) has become an investment bubble, with the complementary forces of Human herd behavior, greed, fear of missing out, and a lack of understanding of past financial bubbles amplifying it. Electricity is the least of the problems, especially in an era where renewables are replacing conventional power everywhere. Let it get to 10 Trillion + in a couple or so years and then you come back talking about its stability! Consensus destroyed. Of course get out NOW. Alright, time for a thought experiment. 26 Replies 18313 Views March 27, 2020, 01:47:17 PM by talltexan: How do you press your kids to learn money habits? So Im going with no. Yes, you can hedge in other things, but gold is fungible, dividable, small enough to hide, and has been valuable for centuries. You could just hold a fraction and still see it grow with time, much faster than most other investment avenues available today. Thanks for your perspective on an interesting topic. Ms. Frugal Asian Finance Westerners will not see the benefit for sometime as we have no purpose ourselves for bitcoin but once it becomes a single global currency that can be used in every shop of the world then everyone will be holding bitcoin. it is as simple as that. The real test of if you should be a cryptocurrency supporter:would you be exactly as passionate and spend the same amount of time thinking about it,if Bitcoin were still an obscure piece of code, worth less than one cent, and offered no chance of ever earning you any money? Check out RaiBlocks and other DAG-based coins. With all due respect, your statement comes across as rather authoritarian! So I did learn a bit about locking and unlocking information, hacking, and ensuring that independent brains (whether they are two adjacent CPUs on a circuit board or two companies negotiating across the Pacific) can trust each other and coordinate their actions in lockstep. How is that even possible? Good thing I dont invest in it! Yep, really fluid and efficient system that takes 3 days and $20 to record a single transaction, I remember about 20 years ago the starry-eyed optimists predicting the end of brick and mortar banks within a decade or two. Closer to 85 years than 40. . Some of them have no earnings at all. So, I PayPald you the $100 for your fingernail clippings before I got to the part about them going for $70,000. January 3, 2018, 12:17 pm, The last 10% of possible wins are better left to the idiots. Wow, you really have no idea how hydroelectric power works. MissSaraBee Sun, these guys are just parroting stuff the banks put out, to suit their points. PS. This is a non-sarcastic answer: The same could be said of buying a Powerball ticket every week. Im sorry MMM, but the consensus is that your fingernails are worth nothing (you couldnt even pay me to hold them), and that 1 BTC is worth more than your bike. They always do.. When evaluating investment bubbles, it means looking at where everyone is throwing their money no matter how many billions and being willing to say Bull. Like every state currency, it derives its worth out of the fact that the state says you can *always* pay your taxes with it (and that shops have to accept it). As has the MMM investing sub-furum. About the Comments Section:Normally, I try not to publish comments that are just emotional reactions or totally uninformed. Fair comparison? Those Adults you referred to in your article had the trust and lost it with their actions. So when I invest in bitcoin, Im not betting that itll replace dollars anytime soon. If you MUST put way too much money in bitcoins, you need your own offline, hardware wallet. Second: Human nature actually tolerates a *lot* of corruption in exchange to stability, so I dont think well be switching over to this science fair project any time soon. I think the far greater chance is your comment will be the joke. I agree w jon. Doubly so because it is now so broken by its development team that it is perhaps the only cryptocurrency that I know of that doesnt even work as currency. Subsequently, some 70 years later, Im still using that toilet paper to finance my retirement, buy cars, houses and all sorts of things? People will overbuy it in a frenzy and oversell it when fear sets in. You guys may enjoy this article about Peter Thiel: https://www.wsj.com/articles/peter-thiels-founders-fund-makes-big-bet-on-bitcoin-1514917433. As we know from MMM teachings, safety and security are lies. Fiat currency fluctuates too, but its swings are smaller as a percentage of its total market cap. Bitcoin is a nascent technology and will evolve with time. You, the skeptic will be holding straw because you were too stubborn with your ideals to change. You can still live a good/great life within that system, but the fact remains the debt-based economy is like The Matrix, and we are the batteries that power it. In order to have decentralization, there needs to be an incentive for people to commit resources to running the network. Im always reminded of VHS versus beta max but on a few thousand options scale (rather then two) and a higher risk if you choose wrong (at current prices). Congratulations, it sounds like you gambled and won. Ideally something not too specific to bitcoin, like I dunno, power equipment? Read through this article for the contrarian view of things: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4134745-bitcoins-path-1-million-bubble-bursting-anytime-soon, Mr. Money Mustache If your chosen currency doesnt win out it goes to 0 since if it has no users it has no value. You will also have to pay a fee to transfer from the exchange to your wallet. Ignore this utterly irrational FUD and embrace the digital world. Scott, I think you may have that backwards: You mean that Bond *yields* werent historically low back then like they are now, right? Its absolutely astounding how the general (pretty darn) intelligent public cant tell the difference between an real asset vs an investment. Do not give up. So you are further wagering that Bitcoin will literally supplant the USD as the world medium of financial exchange, and frankly, that is kinda bonkers. Redirecting to /r/mrmoneymustache/comments/mz1sma/thoughts_on_mmm_why_bitcoin_is_stupid/h094ynt (308) When I hear someone claim an investment in Bitcoin I end up smiling politely and correcting them on one point. I wouldnt! Profit! Anyway, if your argument were correctwhich it partially isthen you of all people should be against fiat money systems like the US dollar in its current form. And regarding Bitcoin as currency, it is already not usable as that TODAY. Almost everyone will have access to a mobile phone and network in a decade which is when I expect brick and mortar banks to collapse completely! Tim Beck Which happened 47 years ago, not 40. We clearly see them in Africa, Middle East and Latin America. If cryptocurrency takes off, its much more likely that the winning one hasnt even been created yet, if history holds. People then go on to say, If theres even a ONE PERCENT CHANCE that this happens, Bitcoins are severely undervalued and they should really be worth, like, at least a quadrillion dollars each!!. So, I use bitcoin to buy stuff with the gift cards from these people. January 3, 2018, 12:26 pm. This separation is important becausethe usefulness of Blockchain is the primary justification people use for the big dumb Bitcoin lottery. Christopher R Young Long time reader, first time commenter (ha). Thats something worth giggling. People will release new ones all the time and people invest in them, not because they will ever be useful but because they expect the price to skyrocket. 1) Energy consumption Bitcoin consumes a massive amount of energy to secure the network. How much of your net worth is in this investment? I refer you to: https://shitcoin.me/. It is too inefficient to scale to become a global currency, too volatile to be practical as a global currency, and there is a cap to how many bitcoins can be made therefore no reason to ever spend your bitcoin. There valuation of pretty much everything but Bitcoin and Ethereum is unjustifiable. Returns are down and all that cash needs to go somewhere. Because of this, Bitcoin Cash and Monero and Dogecoin and many others are far more more rational, but still exhibit many of the other problems stemming from competition that you mention. Gold is not an investment, but it is an excellent form of money. Were human, so human. Personally, I think this article shows that Mr Adeney has had his blog hijacked by the Anti-satoshi ;). A billion dollar gaming industry creating games worth watching. That means over the next 2 years, the Shiller P/E will be rolling out some of the terrible earnings numbers from the global financial crisis. January 4, 2018, 2:48 pm. Many are trying to perfect it but until there is a clear winner, different ones will emerge. I hope it wasn't, but as he said in the article, it's none of our damn business. Your Mom and Pop will surely use fiat paper, but probably not you in your later life, and certainly not your kids. We will see you on the other side of the crash. Bitcoin isnt that though. All points noted. MMM, you cannot call Bitcoin Stupid and then go tangentially into an Utopian discourse. I dont think so. Some newer, better tech has now taken BTCs place here (LTC or any DAG technology). Dr-In-Debt Spot on VIJAY. Bitcoin dropped 20% overnight, so it is not currently a very reliable store of value. Vijay, what MMM is saying is that cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin cannot presently operate as currencies. I imagine that we are both smiling at this point. I enjoyed this analysis by Aswath Damodaran, a thoughtful investor and Professor at NYU school of business. Undoubtedly the bubble will burst or mining difficulty will increase, but Ill be able to sell this supercomputer to some nerd play World of War Craft on. Should I just get out now? El Penguin Here's the one I like: 25x the annual amount you spend/4% of your assets. Of course there is speculation. So I also read a lot about investment bubbles and fundamentals and how to tell those apart. Adney's first tip is to change how you look at the prices of what you buy. Take risks, but keep educated and with good money management. Its cut a few years from our projected FIRE date. But its not some spectacular Instant Trillionaire piece of magic. (Then Ill get out, right? And btw, just switching currency is not going to remove any debt. The kids pulverize the bricks to make brick dust, which is the most valuable currency/commodity in their forest kingdom. Bitcoin CANNOT shelter you, pay dividends nor feed you. Please dont fall for Hype, generally fed by the Banks and their Media! Mr. Money Mustache shares his opinion about Bitcoin. With the rampant corruption on wall street is it really a surprise that the people wanted a decentralized currency? Saving billions from poverty, war, and the enslavement of banks or the lack of any banking is Altruistic. Assuming you can know the exact price of a commodity on a given day is speculative, yes. January 2, 2018, 7:09 pm. Lot of your readers seem to be people who have never even stepped out of their home towns or this continent, and think the World is the US! Even if you are the only one in the room willing to do it. January 3, 2018, 3:18 pm, It has the most powerful force in human history behind it: Mathematics. Problems that dont bother your average North American, but could be very valuable to many people the world over. Bitcoin is almost as irrational from current prices as are US stocks. In short, historically gold is the truest measure of value, the safest store of wealth, and best insurance against fiat money and other manias (see Weimar Republic circa 1934). That is why our civilization used that rather than perishables or iron. The worlds governments are not going to let everyone start trading money anonymously and evading taxes using Bitcoin. Herd behavior? If you want just one reason it is that governments will not allow it. January 3, 2018, 12:55 pm. A boy named Sue Stay on the sidelines. Warren Buffet says dont invest in what you dont understand, and I dont understand Bitcoin. Shiller really just rediscovered it. And this, MMM There are no financial instruments that will protect you from a world where we no longer trust each other. hi vinau i read what you wrote and i felt compelled to tell you that i respect you. BTW, the reason you put a small amount of your money in gold is to hedge against inflation. Exchanges and funds get looted (or looted by the operators) all the time. Liked. It also helps to have wise, centralized humans (the Federal Reserve system and other central banks) guiding the system. Its not an investment. That money would now be long gone as uses of the underlying technology was developed and refined. The Cryptocurrency bubble is really a replay of the past: A good percentage of Humans are prone to mass delusions which lead to irrational behavior. My issue is with the currencies themselves. This instability just further proves that it would make a terrible currency and a recent study reveals that about 95% of even the trading volume is fraudulent. as well as all legal forms of private sales (ie. Just because the last while has been great, it wont always be that way. Reward for Risk is worse for Powerball. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aeMv9uKpAZg, The Wealthy Accountant Mr. Money Mustache No doubt we are in a crypto mania now, but the concept of a global digital currency has been coming since Biblical times. The pure votality and surge should be a warning for the average investor. He is skeptical of anything that has a tinge of a get rich quick scheme. Let me know which one consumes more energy overall? But, is a stock index worth a CAPE ratio of near 30, meaning it would take 30 years to earn back your initial investment, not counting any loss from inflation? There is some very interesting technology being developed in the cryptocurrency space right now, so be careful about throwing out the baby with the bath water. farmecologist January 3, 2018, 4:42 pm. If you think you are hardcore enough to handle Maximum Mustache, feel free to start at the first article and read your way up to the present using the links at the bottom of each article. I couldnt find anything indicating countries are using bitcoin as a reserve currency. Not a penny was wasted. One of the 3 points MMM stated it needs. This results in a silent crash, and a loss in purchasing power for stock holderseven if the nominal price of stocks remains the same. Use this 500K wisely and make our planet better! It is subject to crazes and manias. In the field of personal wealth, this means walking your children past the idling lineup of your neighbors Mercedes SUVs, over the snowy grass and up to the door of the school and being confident that you are doing the right thing. In that forest there are old bricks. Mustachianism the mental training that gets you to very early financial freedom requires you to evaluate inefficiencies in our culture and call bullshit upon them. Yes, it is true that bonds are *also* in a bubble at the present timeand that the bond bubble is so big that it makes stocks look relatively cheap by comparison. Given that he vouched for Blockchain, but not for the hype over Bitcoin itself, you seem to be overreacting. Its well written and pretty obviously by a real software and math person. Ryan Thomas This black one here is only $1,000,000,000,000,000. A large proportion of other coins are long term holds. Why? MMM i normally love your articles but you knew this one would be polarizing Im sure. 7 Replies 594 Views February 10, 2023, 11:49:28 AM by index: Bonds funds vs stable value funds. Soon, they will be on the brink of bankruptcy and you will be able to purchase all of their stuff at a discount. They were literally carting around wheelbarrows full of the note because the hyperinflation the government produced killed the currency. United States . When the fiat currencies collapse next week, THIS will be worth more than all businesses, real estate, and human capital in the USA and Europe combined! Ive been investing steadily over a 20 year period. Humans are conditioned for shortcuts in all aspects of life. We also both wear wedding rings made of gold and are quite happier with them than if they were made of copper or tin or lead or nickel or mercury. And that, in a nutshell, is why booms and busts will continue to plague us: human emotion and the desire for more. January 2, 2018, 6:06 pm, Agreed! After all, you could make the same argument about Mr. Money Mustachesfingernail clippings: they may have no intrinsic value, but at least they are in limited supplyso lets use them as the new world currency! . Allow it time to grow to say 10 trillion, and then let us debate on stability. Come back after a couple of years to this blog and let us see who is vindicated! Apparently the friend had doubled his money. What are the world currencies pegged to ? The question is if one is worth $15k? Rather than maximize profits, what about minimizing regrets? I think its a bit of stretch to call Bitcoin a Ponzi scheme. Good comments Jon. Probably because it was the first and still the largest blockchain based tech, a lot of capital has gone into Bitcoin mining equipment. Today, Jan 26, at 11:30 AM, its trading around $31,850. Please, Alex Anton is not shouting. Its funny reading your article because while Im a true believer in bitcoin as the internet of money, I feel pretty much the same way as you do about 99% of the rest of crypto. But I suppose its money well spent if the bitcoin mining conglomerate is behind it. Since when was that a down year? Please drop the bullying and come back to join the conversation. There is a very good chance that this article will be the butt of jokes 5 years down the road, when the toilet paper fiat currencies are all passe! But thats just the software side (Blockchain). The Ramsey Show is a podcast by Dave Ramsey, a financial guru and bestselling author. Its the last one! You can even have a social media/blogging site based on a blockchain, like steem/steemit. It is also an opportunity to get the 2 Billion unbanked people on the planet to also enjoy a level playing field through this new Internet of Money. Then you are in at twice the actual price of Bitcoin. But I hope the good times continue for a long while! Ive been thinking of doing just that.. And then I put it off for a few weeks, and the price jumps up exponentially. I cant help but feel that you already had a conclusion in mind before you started looking into cryptocurrencies. On the other hand, paying a ridiculously high speculative price based only on what others *might* be willing to pay in the futurebased on little historical or reasonable evidencecertainly is insane. If it was instead patentable Id buy some stock in the holder. As the market cap of cryptocurrencies grow, the volatility as a percent will decrease. I reply, if its gotten that bad, I dont want to live in that world anyway. January 2, 2018, 9:01 pm. Might want to polish that up before going public again. But from now on, Im going to replace that sob story with this: Man, I missed out on MMM fingernail clippings! to remind myself of the absurdity of that imagined sunk cost Ive burdened myself with. Bill Batchelor You made an unsupported claim. Hows that Nvidia stock doing now that GPU sales have been skyrocketing this last year giving them two record years in 2016 and 2017? There is no reliable way to track or trace paper. Consensus over its value. Gotta! Get listed and sell some shares. Started by myrrh. A prescient article, but unfortunately, those of us that have investigated Bitcoin and come to the same conclusions(no interest in speculation, possibly completely value-less) must continue to put up with the Bitcoin bulls, and as seen in this comment section, they are extremely bullish. Probably because it was the first place it wont always be that way it do. Minimizing regrets but could be said of buying a Powerball ticket every week a few years from our FIRE. 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