There's nothing written in stone, but I am mindful of the fact that I need to be careful.. No one else has topped 96. Call 7032375030 for more information. Typically, Kentucky Derby field horses post BSF around or over 90. Happy Jack. Figure 1a shows the stack of the device used for the study with a scanning electron microscope . 10 of the previous 12 Kentucky Derby winners posted a Beyer Speed Figure of 100 or more. Other Andrew Beyer Breeders Cup picks are on the main page. Beyers subsequent books, My $50,000 Year at the Races (1978), The Winning Horseplayer (1983), and Beyer on Speed (1993) continued to raise racing fans awareness of the importance of speed figures. The Beyer Speed Figure is calculated by looking at the final time and distance of the race, adjusted by the track variant, which is a measure of the inherent speed of the racetrack in question. She turned in her first workout on the Churchill Downs surface on Saturday, April 30, going four furlongs in 47.80 seconds. Barring any major surprises, Epicenter will be the favorite for the Preakness Stakes when the gates open on Saturday. The end result also included a 98 Beyer, which matches the best speed figure run so far by Zandon, the morning-line Derby favorite. Beyer Speed Figures will sometimes be revised after they are originally published. This makes them wild cards of sorts, with the odds estimate reflecting the uncertainty. Beyer's subsequent research added the last piece of the puzzle. Kentucky Derby 2022: Who are the fastest contenders. The 148th running of horse racing's Kentucky Derby will be held Saturday, May 7, 2022, at Churchill Downs in Louisville. The first Saturday in May approaches, which means the Kentucky Derby is coming. Epicenter might have grabbed the weekend headlines by winning the Grade 2 Risen Star and picking up 50 qualifying points for the 2022 Kentucky Derby. Those who live and die by the speed figures may give Early Voting a chance to upset Epicenter andSkippylongstockinga shot to hit the board, but neither runner has any previous figure that is strong enough to lean on. Taiba also notched a 102 in winning the Santa Anita Derby April . The Grade 2, $400,000 Fountain of Youth Stakes , t Hallandale Beach, Fla. Trainers always are searchi Before handicapping the Grade 2, $400,000 San Feli History (1875-2022 Derby Results & Videos), Breeders' Cup Super Screener - Expert Picks. For the purpose of this particular preview we'll just . Creating these figures is the result of a very complex process that involves mathematical formulas and judgment calls . The Stephen Foster was the fifth straight triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure for Olympiad in 2022. He has run consecutive 101 numbers, which puts him behind four other Preakness probables. A 90 at Saratoga is the same quality of performance as a 90 at the Ferndale Fair.Moreover, a figure of 90 in a six-furlong race is the same quality of performance as a 90 at 1 miles. Commentator, who once ran a 123 in his career, scored a 120 as a 7-year-old, possibly a record for a horse that old. 97. Handicappers may find it useful to relate the par to the typical figures of horses in a field. Low 43F. Since 1992, 27 of 30 Kentucky Derby winners have entered the race with a career-best Beyer speed figure of at least 95. [12] Easy Goer also ran 121, 120 and 119 speed figures in the 1989 Travers Stakes, Jockey Club Gold Cup and Whitney Handicap. With the way things are looking, it seems like Epicenter has an excellent chance of winning the Kentucky Derby this year. Chance of rain 100%. That's not about to change. So a high BSF ceiling is notable, but also consistency is a plus too to battle possible negative regression. padding: 4px; With a large field set to enter the starting gate on Saturday, want to see the horse racing predictions from racing insider and Beyer Speed Figure maker Bob Weir before making any 2022 Blue Grass . OVC Tournament Odds: Just How Vulnerable Is Morehead State? Your TDN download has begun. Below is a closer look at the career best Beyer Speed Figures, Brisnet Speed Ratings and TimeformUS Speed Figures for the North American contenders in the prospective 2022 Kentucky Derby field. Belmont Stakes 2022: Post positions, morning line; We the People favored at 2-1. . There is so much to look forward to out there.. (Only Epicenter, Messier . Slew's Tiz Whiz Named Washington's 2022 Horse Of The Year. 3-Year-Old Female Older Male Older Female. Unlike many of his rivals, he still has room to catch up on speed figures. The handicapping, sports odds information contained on this website is for entertainment purposes only. font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; Beyer explained that rating a horses ability on just the final time of the race was not good enough, because racing surfaces can vary from day to day based on the weather, how the track is maintained and other factors. Beyer said that if his figures were around in 1973, Secretariat would have earned a 139 Beyer for his Belmont Stakes victory. .tableizer-table td { Prior to the Malibu, Flightline and Baby Yoda (Prospective) were tied for the best number on the year, a 114. The big step that I know for sure is that we want to get him stretched out, he said. This implies that Secretariat would have had the highest ever Beyer speed figure. Wudda U Think Now had the weekend's highest Beyer Speed Figure and Brisnet Speed Ratings after winning the black-type Hollie Hughes at Aqueduct on Saturday for his first stakes win in 14 career starts. Beyer Speed Figures favor Epicenter, and it is not very close. Each day's races are compared to their pars, with the variant representing the average deviation, and then added to the raw speed rating to yield the par-time based figure. His Beyer Speed Figure of 92 is only 4 points off the second best number. When that venture folded, Daily Racing Form incorporated the Figures into its past performances beginning in April, 1992. 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Stay up-to-date with the best from America's Best Racing! } The most exciting two minutes in sports doubles as a betting bonanza as well. In horse racing, power ratings are generally called class ratings. Triple Crown Winners from Sir Barton to Justify, Black History Month: Shining a Spotlight on Notable African American Jockeys, Preakness Quick Sheet: Get to Know the 2021 Preakness Horses, Get to Know All 13 U.S. It was one point better than the 110 Beyer Speed Figure Life Is Good earned for winning the $3 million Pegasus World Cup in January to rate as the highest figure at more than a mile this year Charge It earned a 111 for winning the Dwyer Stakes at one mile on July 2. Odds Shark does not target an audience under the age of 18. color: #FFF; The Stephen Foster was the fifth straight triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure for Olympiad in 2022. He was assigned a 103 Beyer Speed figure for that effort which is the highest in the field. Because multiple horses are in each race, as opposed to two teams (binary) in a sport (or chess, which uses the Elo rating system to make power ratings), the task of adjusting power ratings is much more complex. } Timeform Ratings go a step further in trying to be both accurate and objective. Indy are both major stamina influences as broodmare sires and Olympiads family also produced 1987 Ashland Stakes winner Chic Shirine and 2015 Travers Stakes winner Keen Ice. Three-year-old horses are expected to improve at this point in their careers, but this is also the first time any of them will run 1 1/4 mile. He's the kind of horse that when he's right and ready to run that's when he's going to go. While Beyer has also noted that "speed figures tell you how fast a horse ran in the past; they do not necessarily predict how it will run today," their use as a handicapping tool is premised on their ability to shed light on how a horse is likely to run in its next start. Below is a closer look at the top Beyer Speed Figure, Brisnet Speed Rating and TimeformUS Speed Figure earned by the 2022 Kentucky Derby contenders. Bet with your head, not over it. Here are the 19 highest Beyer figures for Saturday's races, with figures from Brisnet and TimeformUS where available. (Coady Photography), A Closer Look at 2022 Breeders Cup Classic Hopeful Olympiad, Grandview Equine, Cheyenne Stables, and LNJ Foxwoods. The system behind the figures was explained in detail and popularized by Andrew Beyers book, Picking Winners, published in 1975. She earned an impressive 98 Beyer Speed Figure in that race, the best of any Oaks rival by six points. I'm going to take it one step at a time. When many people see the name of a champion sprinter as a sire, they think his best runners will be fast and precocious. 38 Flatter Died 2022 67 111 17 0 $665,300 3 3 4% 0 0 0% 96 Hero Status. Kentucky Derby 2022: Why your horse can - and can't - win Saturday's race. Speed figures are normalized numerical representations of final times based on relative track speeds, as it is rare for tracks to produce the exact final . [15][16], Beyer speculated that had his figures existed in 1973, Secretariat would have scored 139 in his classic 1973 win at the Belmont Stakes. . border: 1px solid #CCC; Daily Racing Form provides the top 25 race horses ranked by earnings. At Belmont Park, maiden special weight races for older horses have a par of 87. We the People (2-1) Skippylongstocking (20-1) . His Beyers have progressed from 70 to 88 to 98. 'TDN Rising Star' Flightline ( Tapit) is really, really, fast . Beyer Speed Figures and TimeformUS Speed Figures are courtesy ofDaily Racing Form. GET OUR NEWSLETTER. A look at the top Kentucky Derby contenders for the 2022 race heading into the March prep schedule, with Baffert still banned and new leaders in the points rankings. Play today with NYRA Bets! Both runners earned their lofty numbers in the Wood Memorial (G2). Big South Tournament Odds: UNC Asheville, Longwood Knotted Atop Betting Market. Play today with NYRA Bets! Combining BSFs with other metrics like Brisnet Speed Figures and final furlong times gives us a more complete picture of this field. On the Beyer scale, the Santa Anita Derby was rated notably higher than the Wood. . So it's possible for a horse to earn a number that is higher than a horse who finished ahead. Though by no means the end all and be all of picking winners, speed figures provide a good gauge of the overall talent level of horses in a race. Taiba (+800) and Messier (+800) lead the group having posted 103s previously in Kentucky Derby Prep races. He also wanted a rating system that could compare horses at different distances and at all racetracks. With the 2022 Breeders' Cup fast approaching we take A look at the historical numbers for each of the 14 championship races. (Of course, all horses have distances they prefer, and a sprinter who earns a big figure at six furlongs is unlikely to duplicate it in the Kentucky Derby.) 0:49. . by ericdecoster February 9, 202211 min read. 107. Similar to the Beyer and Brisnet scales, Secret Oath is in the thick of things from a numbers prospectivewhile challenging the males. 0:04. Messier and Taiba lead all contenders in the Beyer Speed Figure department. It's an exciting time. Where and when, I don't know yet. These were three of the eight highest figures earned in the 1990s. "Five Takeaways" From the Week Concluding March 13, 2022 By Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Analyst and Handicapper. He earned a 102 for his Preakness and a 105 for his Belmont Stakes victory. Messier earned a 103 Beyer in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3). For example, a horse who earns three consecutive figures of 102, and defeats a horse with three consecutive figures of 92, would indicate a projected figure of 102 for that race is accurate. He's won four of his past five races, losing only by a head to Call Me Midnight in the Grade 3 Lecomte. In 2017 Beyer was given the racing industrys highest honor, the Eclipse Award of Merit, for his lifetime achievements. [1], The record for the highest Beyer Speed figure is held by Groovy, the 1987 American Champion Sprint Horse who earned 133 and 132 in back-to-back races,[2] in the Roseben and True North Handicaps at six furlongs in 1987. 60 Broad St. Wednesday College Basketball Best Bets: Will Texas Road Slump Continue? According to the speed figures, Arkansas is the circuit to avoid in this year's Kentucky Derby. How do they stand up to last years group and what can we expect from these 20 horses? The figures are straightforward: the greater the number, the quicker the horse. Beyer Speed Figures express the most important factor in handicapping: how fast a horse has run in each of his starts. Questions of general interest will be preferred for publication. 111. Note that Crown Pride and Summer Is Tomorrow do not have relevant Beyer Speed Figures due to running outside the United States. [2] Flightline earned a 126 speed figure in winning the 2022 Pacific Classic Stakes at Del Mar Racetrack in 2022. By his theory, a horse earning an 85 Beyer at Golden Gate Fields going seven furlongs and a horse earning an 85 Beyer at nine furlongs at Santa Anita basically have the same ability. Belmont Stakes 2022 post positions, morning line; We the People favored at 2-1. . Video Poker Guide: Play the Best Online Video Poker Games, Tacitus 2019 Kentucky Derby Contender Profile, 2022 Belmont Stakes Odds: We The People Overtakes Mo Donegal On The Oddsboard, 2022 Breeders Cup Predictions: Expert Picks And Best Bets. [Related: Kentucky Derby 2022: New scenarios after 3 defections]. 2022 Preakness: Beyer Speed Figures For Every Horse. Breeders Cup Promo - Get Up to $200 Back If Your First Bet Loses, Get Your First Single-Horse Win Wager Back. Kentucky Derby 2022: How do the speed figures stack up. Below is the best and most recent BSF from each horse in the 2022 Kentucky Derby Field. With a horse who did not make his debut until April of his 3-year-old year and , who has raced just three times over the span of eight months, trainer John Sadler has been very deliberate with Flightline. Its important to look at multiple data points, especially in the case of an unusually high or low number, such as that of Morello. [citation needed]. 21+: TheLines.com and all content herein is intended for audiences 21 years and older. His performance was given a Beyer Speed Figure of 126, which according to the Daily Racing Form, which publishes the figures, is the second-highest number since eponymous BSF creator Andrew Beyer . 7 Winners on Monday! NEC Tournament Odds: Merrimack In A One-Horse Race? Receive daily headlines, breaking news alerts, promotions, and much . Nest improved to an 82 Beyer and a 99 Equibase figure in the Suncoast. Making just his third lifetime start after very impressive wins in a Santa Anita maiden and a Del Mar allowance, Flightline was tested for class in the Malibu, and couldn't have passed any more easily. The Beyer speed figure of 79 was solid if not spectacular, but the manner in which the win was accomplished - a stalking trip followed by a good late kick - suggests this colt will be perfectly suited by an extended sprint . Grandam (maternal grandmother) Flying Passage, by A.P. In a rare circumstance, he would have been favored even if the Kentucky Derby winner, Rich Strike, was running in the Preakness. This year, Taiba,Messier, and Epicenterboth have topped that mark. The Beyer Speed Figures are an easy indicator to determine which horse will likely become the favorite to win in a race. Breeders Cup Promo - Get Up to $200 Back If Your First Bet Loses, Get Your First Single-Horse Win Wager Back, Register for DFS, receive a free NBA Entry. At Belmont Park, maiden special weight races for older horses have a par of 87. [5] Easy Goer is also the record-holder for a two-year-old, earning a 116 Beyer Speed Figure in the 1988 Champagne Stakes. When considering his chances to excel at 1 miles in the classic, Olympiad gets a nice stamina boost from the bottom half of his pedigree. Epicenter might have grabbed the weekend headlines by winning the Grade 2 Risen Star and picking up 50 qualifying points for the 2022 Kentucky Derby.But it was a 5-year-old who had the fastest race of the weekend, at least according to two sources. Un Ojo notched only an 84 Beyer Speed Figure for his upset win in the Rebel (G2). Pedigree: Olympiad is from the 13th crop of 2004 champion sprinter Speightstown, by Gone West. Holy Bull earned a 121 in his career. Beyer Speed Figures (BSF) is a common metric used to handicap horse racing and contextualize how well a horse ran in a given race. Written By Mo Nuwwarah on May 19, 2022 - Last Updated on May 23, 2022. Bob Weir revealed his 2022 Metropolitan Handicap picks ahead of Saturday's race, which is also known as the Met Mile . He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. Remember Ben with a gift to Thoroughbred aftercare, Subscribe for FREE to the Daily PDF or the News Alerts, Home Archive Shared News With A 118 Beyer, Flightline Heads Into 2022. He earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 121. . Considering how poorly the Gazelle entrants ran in the Kentucky Oaks, it seems that the Gazelle was painfully weak this year, making the Wood look better than it really was. After breaking a step slowly, the 3-year-old took control early on, started to draw clear on the turn and then galloped away from his rivals without ever being asked by jockey Flavien Prat. The Beyer Speed Figure is a system for rating the performance of Thoroughbred racehorses in North America designed in the early 1970s by Andrew Beyer, the syndicated horse racing columnist for The Washington Post. Simplification seems like the most likely horse to show up for the exotics. Flightline, now a 4-year-old, posted an impressive Beyer speed figure of 126 in the Pacific Classic, and continued a five-race string of excellence of 105, 114, 118, 112, and 126 leading into . 1 . Used 2014 Audi A6 from Beyer Kia Falls Church in Falls Church, VA, 22046. Secret Oath's 103 number ranks as good as anyone who did not run in the Wood Memorial. Among those not at the top of the speed figure scale, only Creative Minister is worth giving a second look. Capped a run of three wins in four starts at Fair Grounds with a score in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby, earning a career best Beyer Speed Figure of 102. University of Louisville Equine Industry Program - Get a Career in Horse Racing! Formal Gold ran successive numbers of 126, 124 and 125 in 1997 in the Whitney Handicap (actually losing by a nose to Will's Way), Iselin Handicap and Woodward Stakes. His Carter victory earned a career-high Beyer Speed Figure of 114. The popular rule of thumb for a rough equivalent of the Timeform score is to deduct 12-14 points to achieve the Beyer figure. 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational Bets: Final PGA TOUR Thoughts, Betting Card. Epicenter's effort in the Risen Star earned him a 98 Beyer and Brisnet. If you are a casual sports fan getting ready to check out the Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown, you are going to hear plenty of talk about Beyer Speed Figures. He is recognized on the Joe Hirsch Honor Roll in the National Museum of Racing for excellence in turf writing. [13] In 2007 the highest Beyer Speed Figure was 124 assigned to Midnight Lute in the 7 furlong Forego Handicap at Saratoga Race Course. University of Louisville Equine Industry Program - Get a Career in Horse Racing! In fact, his 103 Beyer Speed Figure is the highest by a 3-year-old this year, according to the Daily Racing Form. He's a gift. Each week, we will analyze the top maiden winners by Beyer performances. 2022 Kentucky Derby Field Beyer Speed Figures. with a Beyer Speed Figure of 103, best of any contender and second fastest among 3-year-olds this year. In 10 of the last 12 Runs For The Roses, the winner posted a 100+ BSF in victory. Conversely, a Belmont MSW favorite with a figure of 90 will be formidable.Owners and trainers can employ pars to find proper spots for their horses. Taiba earned the same number when defeating his stablemate in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). Just how fast is a certain crop of horses in the Kentucky Derby? The figures are generally less reliable in turf races, which often have a slow early pace resulting in slow final times that do not reflect the horse's true speed. Longtime Washington Post columnist Andy Beyer created the Beyer Speed Figures, first appearing in his groundbreaking handicapping book Picking Sportsbooks in 1975. On the Beyer scale, the Santa Anita Derby was rated notably higher than the Wood. When handicapping a horse race, there are more variables than one can count, but using the Beyer Speed Figures will get you headed in the right direction. ** Get a $150 deposit match from AmWager + Daily Rewards**, Kentucky Derby 2022: New scenarios after 3 defections, Kentucky Derby prep: Gotham Stakes 2023 odds and analysis, Work tab: Cody's Wish drills for 1st time since Breeders' Cup win, Head to Head: Handicapping Fountain of Youth 2023, Romans wins weight battle, now looks to Fountain of Youth, Ky. Derby prep: 1 horse can beat Yakteen 5 in San Felipe. Obviously the racing surface at Tampa Bay Downs that day was playing slightly faster. font-size: 12px; Below, well use Beyer Speed Figures to determine the speed of the 2022 Kentucky Derby field. The track variant considers both the historical average time at the racetrack for the distance in question, called the "par time", and the average speed for the day in particular. Messier and Taiba lead all contenders in the Beyer Speed Figure department. Please confirm the wagering regulations in your jurisdiction as they vary from state to state, province to province and country to country. 84. Dale Romans gave me some good advice, he said. University of Louisville Equine Industry Program - Get a Career in Horse Racing! With Rich Strike and Zandon defecting, it opens the door for the Derby runner-up to dip below 2-1, which is unusually short for a non-Derby winner. His Brisnet Ratings have improved from 76 to 98, and his TimeformUS numbers has gone from 98 to 116 in only three starts. [8] It is noteworthy that Easy Goer's overall speed figures were substantially superior to principal rival Sunday Silence, despite Sunday Silence's slight three to one edge in their head-to-head races. Trained by Rudy Rodriguez, the gelding led at every call to cover the six furlongs in 1.11.17. At 1 3/16 miles, its the longest Derby prep race, which is why the market looks extremely bullish on Epicenter. The Breeders Cup Classic is the marquee race of the two-day Breeders Cup World Championships to be held at Keeneland for the third time overall on Nov. 4-5, 2022, with 14Breeders Cup races offering $28million in purse money and awards. Written By Mo Nuwwarah on June 8, 2022 - Last Updated on June 9, 2022. He has had only three 3 starts and has yet to go beyond 1 1/16 miles. That . His victory put him at the top of the 2022 Kentucky Derby leaderboard with a total of 64 points. Indy, earned her lone win at 1 1/16 miles and produced Hungry Island and Soaring Empire, both stakes winners around two turns. He's advising bettors to consider speed figures and track conditions prior to wagering. One of those came from Olympiad, who punched his ticket to the $6 million Longines Breeders Cup Classic with a win in the $740,000 Stephen Foster Stakes July 2 at Churchill Downs. Zozos joins Epicenter, Early Voting, Pioneer of Medina and Zandon as the only horses in the field whose speed figures have gone up each time they have run in each of the three categories. Daily Racing Form provides the top 25 race horses ranked by earnings. ** Get a $150 deposit match from AmWager + Daily Rewards**, Kentucky Derby prep: Gotham Stakes 2023 odds and analysis, Work tab: Cody's Wish drills for 1st time since Breeders' Cup win, Head to Head: Handicapping Fountain of Youth 2023, Romans wins weight battle, now looks to Fountain of Youth, Ky. Derby prep: 1 horse can beat Yakteen 5 in San Felipe, These 19 horses have Saturday's highest speed figures. This should be taken with a gain of salt, however, because Epicenter has shown the most consistency. In short, there is much reason for optimism as it pertains to Olympiad being effective at 1 miles in the Longines Classic Nov. 5 at Keeneland. As of 02.26.23. Beyer Speed Figures (BSF) is a common metric used to handicap horse racing and contextualize how well a horse ran in a given race. The top Beyer Speed Figure earned by a Kentucky Derby Sportsbook since 1987 is 118, shared by Summer Squall (1990), Silver Charm (1997) and Smarty Jones (2004). These numbers reflect the relative strength of different racing circuits. Top Beyer Speed Figures. Only Epicenter and Taiba hit triple digits in their most recent race. Un Ojo Ethereal Road and Happy Jack have the lowest career-best BSFs. 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